In The Waiting Room of a Car Dealership

In the waiting room of a car dealership the other day, while waiting for service, I became captive to the brand new Katie Couric Show. Katie’s guest was talking about the Fiscal Cliff and gridlock in Congress.  Her comment to her guest was,  “I don’t even know what the Fiscal Cliff is about!”  

The car dealership receptionist, who was also part of the captive audience, responded,  “I’m with Katie, I have no idea what this Fiscal Cliff is either.”  

“Well,”  I said  “I wouldn’t use Katie Couric as your political roll model.”  

“I do!”  she responded a little offended.  Oops.

I felt bad she had chosen to aligned herself with the uninformed.  But, unfortunately,  Katie Couric and the receptionist aren’t alone.  Most Americans have no clue what Congress and the President are fighting about, nor do they wish to complicate their lives by attempting to understand the gravity of the situation that our country is in.    

Unlike abortion or same-sex marriage, which have very little influence on the lives of most Americans, what Congress and the President do about the Fiscal Cliff will impact everyone.  

First of all, the crisis is misnamed.  It isn’t a cliff.  It is a self imposed deadline mandated by Congress to correct government overspending.  The deadline was imposed by Congress much as you or I might decide to go on a diet.  

We know that in order to lose weight we must go on a diet and exercise.  So, we set a date to start a diet.  On that day, we will begin exercising and quit eating so much food.  But as that date nears, we become fearful and regret our commitment.   We may even hedge a bit and decide to not start the diet just yet - until things settle down in our lives.

That is exactly what is going on right now with Congress and the President.  As the day approaches, they fear the consequences.  If they decrease government spending, it will kill many jobs and lower incomes for millions of Americans.  And, if they increase revenue, by raising taxes, it will also kill many jobs and lower incomes for millions of Americans.  Just like a diet, lowering our deficit means tightening our belt.  A good measure of both decreases in spending and increases in taxes are necessary if it's going to work.  And that is what the "Fiscal Cliff" does.     

The worst thing we could do for our Country is not go on the diet, or to do so little that it has no effect.  And you know what?  That seems to be just where Congress is headed.    

   

con·spir·a·cy the·o·ry

A conspiracy theory explains an event as being the result of an alleged plot by a covert group or organization or, more broadly, the idea that important political, social or economic events are the products of secret plots that are largely unknown to the general public.

My son John, who is generally skeptical about such things pointed out that there might just be a media conspiracy surrounding Christmas.  At the beginning of each holiday shopping season, there is nothing but positive news about the economy.  And then, shortly after Christmas, he said, we are told how dismal the shopping season was for retailers.   Never noticed?  Well, yes, come to think of it - that's true!

On October 2, 2012 the Associated Press writer Anne D’innocenzio’s article was picked up.  The headlines read, Retail Sales Prediction: 4.1% higher than 2012.  In the article  D’innocenzion points out, “[This year] is higher than the average growth of 3.5 percent for November and December over the past 10 years.”  Pretty impressive.

A few days later on October 15, 2012 Marketplace published Jeff Horwich’s piece.  He wrote, “consumer sales rose 1.1% last month because Americans are more confident and that due to stock prices and home prices both giving consumers more confidence.  

A month later, November 14th, NBC headlines read, Chamber of Commerce Data Shows Retail Sales on the Rise. The article quotes North Carolina Regional Chamber of Commerce President Timothy Hulbert who says, “We have come back from the so called great recession and the tepid recovery that has occurred since that recession and so, we are looking forward to a good holiday shopping season.  

And then on December 13^th, another Associated Press article written by Martin Crutsinger headlined, U.S. Retailers Sales rose .3 percent in November.  Crutsinger said “figures were much stronger after factoring lower gas prices. When excluding a large drop in gas station sales, retail sales increased a solid 0.8 percent”.  

I picked these four articles to typify what was being written before Christmas.  The media was swamped with rosy news about the season.  After Christmas, yesterday, something snapped and the media was filled with articles of doom and gloom.  You probably read or hear news like this headline from Reuters which proclaimed, “U.S. retailers scramble after lackluster holiday sales.”  

Is this a conspiracy?  It certainly is.  It is an unspoken sinister plot between the news media outlets and retailers who conspire to promote sales by showing a robust and growing economy which makes people feel good and spend money.  

There were many articles written which predicted a poor shopping season but those articles weren’t picked up by the news media.  The articles that were picked up and widely promoted and published, were the articles that were upbeat and positive.  After all, retailers are not going to place ads on networks or in newspapers that predict doom and gloom.  Knowing this the news media selects and publishes news which will enhance the sales of their advertisers.  

After the shopping season the illusion ends, and the media outlets revert back to the stark reality in which we live.  The economy is poor, good jobs are scarce and the future is dark.  Until next year, when the hype begins anew.

T’was the night before Christmas, and what no-one could see,

The men with the dolphins were under the sea.

Most of the crew were flat on their backs,

Snoring and dreaming all snug in their racks.

Those men on watch were making their rounds,

Some manning the planes or listening for sounds.

Back in maneuvering or down in the room,

They all hoped the oncoming watch would come soon.

I’d finished some PM’s whose time was now due,

And hoped for some sleep, even an hour or two.

Against better judgment I took a short stroll,

And found myself wandering into control.

The Nav had the Conn, the COW was in place,

The COB had the Dive and a scowl on his face.

The helm and the planes were relaxed but aware,

The QM and ET were discussing a dare.

To comply with the orders the Nav told the Dive,

To bring the boat up with minimum rise.

The orders were given and soon they were there,

At periscope depth with a scope in the air.

The QM confirmed our position with care,

The broadcast was copied, we brought in some air.

The Nav on the scope let out a small cry,

He shook his head twice and rubbed at his eyes.

He looked once again to find what it was,

That interrupted his sweep and caused him to pause.

Try as he might there was nothing to see,

So down went the scope and us to the deep.

I asked what it was that caused his dismay,

He sheepishly said, “I’m embarrassed to say.”

It could have been Northern Lights or a cloud,

Or a meteorite he wondered aloud.

But to tell you the truth I guess I must say,

Whatever it was it looked like a sleigh.

And though it passed quickly and never was clear,

I almost believe it was pulled by reindeer.

We laughed and teased him and I got up to go,

When our moment was broken by “Conn, Radio.”

They told us a message was just coming in,

We looked at the depth gauge and started to grin.

“Radio, Conn, I feel safe to say,

Your attempt at a joke is too long delayed.

If it had been sooner it might have been neat,

But I doubt we’re receiving at four-hundred feet.”

“Conn, Radio, you can come down and see,

We’re not playing games to any degree.”

I headed aft with nothing better to do,

Surprised by the fact it was still coming through.

It stopped and was sent to control to be read,

The Nav read it slowly and scratched at his head.

Then again he began but this time aloud,

To those that now waited, a curious crowd.

“To you Denizens of the Deep and men of the sea,

Who risk your life daily so others stay free.

I rarely have seen you on this, my big night,

For far too often you are hidden from sight.

But purely by luck I saw you tonight,

As your scope coaxed the plankton to glow in the night.

And lucky for me I’ve finally won,

The chance to say thanks for all you have done.

I know that you miss your families at home,

And sometimes you feel as if you’re alone.

But trust what I say and I’ll do what’s right,

I’ll take something special to your families tonight.

Along with the gifts I’ll take to your kin,

I’ll visit their dreams and leave word within.

They’ll hear of your love, and how you miss them,

I’ll tell them that soon you’ll be home again.

It might not be much I know that is true,

To thank you for all the things that you do.

But I’ll do what I can, while you do what’s right,

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a goodnight.”

                                        - author unknown - 

Pay Now, or Pay Later - It's Not pretty!

Like many of you, I have angst all week over the fiscal cliff.  It is in every news story every hour of every day.  We haven’t fallen off the cliff but the media is already blaming Republicans if we do.  And actually, that’s kind of funny because Republicans, who want desperately to save the Bush tax cuts, automatically lose them if we go over the cliff, while many Democrats, like Senator Patty Murray from Washington, are gleeful over the prospect of the fiscal cliff.

I think everybody who is worried about our future should read the article on the fiscal cliff posted in Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_fiscal_cliff for an honest assessment of the crisis and how we got there.  

Political parties enjoy blaming each other, when in fact they both continue to find ways to kick the can down the road for another six months or another year.  Republicans are determine to keep the Bush tax cuts in place while Democrats are determined not to cut spending.  Strong measures are needed that will require both sides to give ground.  

The world will not end if an agreement is not reached and we go off the cliff - or slope (which better describes the crisis).  The Budget Control Act of 2011 would be implemented, ending Bush tax cuts - for everybody, as well as much of the stuff in the 2010 Tax Relief Act such as payroll reductions and unemployment insurance extensions.  Also included will be across-the-board spending reductions in almost every Federal Agency and cabinet department.  

If we take responsibility for the bad government both parties have wrought and except the consequences, then going over the fiscal cliff (or equivalent harsh measures enacted by Congress) must happen.  It will bring lower deficits and debt but also have lower spending and higher taxes.  Future deficits would be reduced from an estimated 8.5% of GDP in 2011 to 1.2% by 2021.  

If, however, Congress avoids austere measures, then our future will continue on our present course of higher deficits and debt but lower taxes and higher spending.  If we choose this route then we are safe for the short term, but the clouds over our future will continue to darken as public debt rises from 69% GDP in 2011 to 100% by 2021 and approaches 190% by 2035. 

So, which is it America?  Pay now or pay later.  Either way we will pay.  Blame the Republicans or blame the Democrats?  It doesn’t really matter.  We will all still pay.

Birthday Greetings!

Thank you for the birthday wishes.  I appreciate the kind thoughts, the cards, and the Facebook greetings from each one of you.  While looking through my Facebook post, it suddenly occurred to me most of my “friends” on Facebook were younger than me.  It’s true.   I spent a few minutes removing the deceased from my file and discovered that a whopping 94.8% of my friends are younger than me.  (By the way, Facebook really needs to address this problem of friends dying.  Having to “Unfriend” the deceased is a bit distressing.)  Besides, nobody wants to be “unfriended” just because they died! 

Anyway, being somewhat in denial, I rationalized that I had plenty of friends who were older than me - they just don’t do Facebook because, well, you know, they're old.  I turned to my address book for solace.  Carefully counting and categorizing each person as older or younger, I did see a slight improvement - but not enough to matter.  Even excluding all the businesses proved unnecessary because they were all way younger than me.   Sadly, I had to reckon with the truth--I’m older than a can of Spam with a key. 

My grand niece Hannah told me I looked like Walter.  “Walter the mouse?” I asked.  “No,  Jeff Dunham’s puppet Walter,” she said.  And while sitting around the back yard this summer Granddaughter Madie paid me a compliment.  “Grandpa was probably pretty good looking - when he was young.”

I asked Mckenna today what she thought of her grandpa turning 68 she said, “You probably think birthdays are boring.”  Shannon, my youngest granddaughter with a heart to please said, “Grandpa,  I know someone older than you. Momma Ruth!”  (Momma Ruth is a friend of Sunni’s who is almost 96 and lives in an assisted living center.   

It’s been a great day!  Pancakes for breakfast, chocolate malt for lunch and a world of wonderful loving family and friends.  There are some good things that come with age.  

1. Kidnappers are not very interested in you.
2. There is nothing left to learn the hard way.
3. Because there is no one else old enough to remember the past, they have to believe me!

Thank you again for helping to make this a wonderful day!

Corporate Tax - Truth & Lies

I do not agree with this video.  I have posted it to show how deceitful the Left is and how flagrant the attacks against American business in this country have become.  It concerns me that conservatives are silent regarding this issue, leading many to believe that the charges - corporations pay no taxes - are true.  They are not.

Commentators like Thom Hartmann and Politicians like Barrack Obama play people like fools on this issue, persuading them with sarcasm and mis-information that the American business world is evil.

My intent with this blog to inoculate you with a little truth so you won't have to cower in fear, unsure of your conservative position.  You'll recognize a lie when you hear it and will be able to boldly declare the truth to others.  It is for that reason I ask you watch this video and then read the rest of my blog.

Convinced?  Thom Hartmann certainly seemed convinced.  Mitt Romney, the Supreme Court, nasty corporations, almost everybody is against poor little Thommy.  Everyone except, of course, the 200+ air-heads who commented on his video.

Here is a very disturbing fact; all of the corporations he mentioned pay taxes - lots of taxes.   I know, not because I'm smart, but because I took the time to look them up.  Here is what I found.  Over a ten year period these particular corporations paid an average of 46.42% per year!  Really.

Any public corporation is required by law to open their books for all to scrutinize and therefore, anyone (including you) can look for themselves and see who is lying - Thommy or me.  I don't mind sharing my source,  Standard & Poor's stock reports.  I have no idea where Hartmann got his information.  

You can  rely on Standard & Poor's data being correct because their entire business model relies on  accurate information.  This is the same Standard and Poor's that downgraded U.S. bonds from triple A to Double A+ after the President and Congress demonstrated the inability to enact sound fiscal policy last August.  I and many other investors stake our savings on the truthfulness of their data.

Presented below is the actual figures for 2010 (the year Hartmann refers) and a ten year period starting in 2002 and ends in 2011.  Two exception: First, NewsCorp's date for 2012 is already published so their  ten year period is from 2003 to 2012.  And second, Bank of America was the only corporation that paid zero taxes in 2010 as Hartmann claimed however, in 2011, the following year, BAC paid 727% of it's income in taxes.  That would make the ten year average annual taxes for BAC 185.41% and the 10 Yr. Ave. for the group would actually be  67%.  Not wanting to be a technocrat and go through the rigors of explaining everything that happened, I eliminated that year and only used a nine year average for BAC.   But even with that the average these corporations paid in taxes was 46.42%.

	2010	10 Yr. Ave
General Electric GE	7.39	29.22%
Bank of America BAC	0	22.04%
Exon Mobil XOM	40.7	80.18%
Boeing BA	26.5	44.40%
Citigroup C	16.9	47.70%
Wells Fargo WFC	33.4	63.58%
Verizon VZ	19.4	38.10%
NewsCorp (Fox) NWSA	20.4	46.16%
10 Yr. Tax Ave.		46.42%

That's quite a difference isn't it?    Is Thom Hartmann lying or is he just another air-head projecting his beliefs above the truth?  I honestly don't know.  But now, at least you know Corporations do not get a free ride and pay a higher percentage of their gross income in taxes than most people.

Politicians need a paradigm shift

I don't care what tribe you come from.  What all Americans want is to dramatically lower their healthcare cost and have the freedom of choosing their care.  For this to happen politicians need a paradigm shift away from lower health care insurance premiums to simply lower healthcare cost.  There is a big difference there, and I think someone should be speaking out about this aspect of cost control.  

Originally insurers were there to keep cost low.  For the past several decades, insurance providers (government included) have exercised the practice of paying whatever cost providers demanded then passing those cost along to consumers.  The result was skyrocketing premiums at over twice the inflation rate.  

Insurers and providers have tried to justify these cost as necessary to pay for government regulation, new technology and R&R.  But you have to question the validity  of that when considering technology advances in almost every other industry brings cost down.