Like many of you, I have angst all week over the fiscal cliff. It is in every news story every hour of every day. We haven’t fallen off the cliff but the media is already blaming Republicans if we do. And actually, that’s kind of funny because Republicans, who want desperately to save the Bush tax cuts, automatically lose them if we go over the cliff, while many Democrats, like Senator Patty Murray from Washington, are gleeful over the prospect of the fiscal cliff.
I think everybody who is worried about our future should read the article on the fiscal cliff posted in Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_fiscal_cliff for an honest assessment of the crisis and how we got there.
Political parties enjoy blaming each other, when in fact they both continue to find ways to kick the can down the road for another six months or another year. Republicans are determine to keep the Bush tax cuts in place while Democrats are determined not to cut spending. Strong measures are needed that will require both sides to give ground.
The world will not end if an agreement is not reached and we go off the cliff - or slope (which better describes the crisis). The Budget Control Act of 2011 would be implemented, ending Bush tax cuts - for everybody, as well as much of the stuff in the 2010 Tax Relief Act such as payroll reductions and unemployment insurance extensions. Also included will be across-the-board spending reductions in almost every Federal Agency and cabinet department.
If we take responsibility for the bad government both parties have wrought and except the consequences, then going over the fiscal cliff (or equivalent harsh measures enacted by Congress) must happen. It will bring lower deficits and debt but also have lower spending and higher taxes. Future deficits would be reduced from an estimated 8.5% of GDP in 2011 to 1.2% by 2021.
If, however, Congress avoids austere measures, then our future will continue on our present course of higher deficits and debt but lower taxes and higher spending. If we choose this route then we are safe for the short term, but the clouds over our future will continue to darken as public debt rises from 69% GDP in 2011 to 100% by 2021 and approaches 190% by 2035.
So, which is it America? Pay now or pay later. Either way we will pay. Blame the Republicans or blame the Democrats? It doesn’t really matter. We will all still pay.