In The Waiting Room of a Car Dealership

In the waiting room of a car dealership the other day, while waiting for service, I became captive to the brand new Katie Couric Show. Katie’s guest was talking about the Fiscal Cliff and gridlock in Congress.  Her comment to her guest was,  “I don’t even know what the Fiscal Cliff is about!”  

The car dealership receptionist, who was also part of the captive audience, responded,  “I’m with Katie, I have no idea what this Fiscal Cliff is either.”  

“Well,”  I said  “I wouldn’t use Katie Couric as your political roll model.”  

“I do!”  she responded a little offended.  Oops.

I felt bad she had chosen to aligned herself with the uninformed.  But, unfortunately,  Katie Couric and the receptionist aren’t alone.  Most Americans have no clue what Congress and the President are fighting about, nor do they wish to complicate their lives by attempting to understand the gravity of the situation that our country is in.    

Unlike abortion or same-sex marriage, which have very little influence on the lives of most Americans, what Congress and the President do about the Fiscal Cliff will impact everyone.  

First of all, the crisis is misnamed.  It isn’t a cliff.  It is a self imposed deadline mandated by Congress to correct government overspending.  The deadline was imposed by Congress much as you or I might decide to go on a diet.  

We know that in order to lose weight we must go on a diet and exercise.  So, we set a date to start a diet.  On that day, we will begin exercising and quit eating so much food.  But as that date nears, we become fearful and regret our commitment.   We may even hedge a bit and decide to not start the diet just yet - until things settle down in our lives.

That is exactly what is going on right now with Congress and the President.  As the day approaches, they fear the consequences.  If they decrease government spending, it will kill many jobs and lower incomes for millions of Americans.  And, if they increase revenue, by raising taxes, it will also kill many jobs and lower incomes for millions of Americans.  Just like a diet, lowering our deficit means tightening our belt.  A good measure of both decreases in spending and increases in taxes are necessary if it's going to work.  And that is what the "Fiscal Cliff" does.     

The worst thing we could do for our Country is not go on the diet, or to do so little that it has no effect.  And you know what?  That seems to be just where Congress is headed.    

   

con·spir·a·cy the·o·ry

A conspiracy theory explains an event as being the result of an alleged plot by a covert group or organization or, more broadly, the idea that important political, social or economic events are the products of secret plots that are largely unknown to the general public.

My son John, who is generally skeptical about such things pointed out that there might just be a media conspiracy surrounding Christmas.  At the beginning of each holiday shopping season, there is nothing but positive news about the economy.  And then, shortly after Christmas, he said, we are told how dismal the shopping season was for retailers.   Never noticed?  Well, yes, come to think of it - that's true!

On October 2, 2012 the Associated Press writer Anne D’innocenzio’s article was picked up.  The headlines read, Retail Sales Prediction: 4.1% higher than 2012.  In the article  D’innocenzion points out, “[This year] is higher than the average growth of 3.5 percent for November and December over the past 10 years.”  Pretty impressive.

A few days later on October 15, 2012 Marketplace published Jeff Horwich’s piece.  He wrote, “consumer sales rose 1.1% last month because Americans are more confident and that due to stock prices and home prices both giving consumers more confidence.  

A month later, November 14th, NBC headlines read, Chamber of Commerce Data Shows Retail Sales on the Rise. The article quotes North Carolina Regional Chamber of Commerce President Timothy Hulbert who says, “We have come back from the so called great recession and the tepid recovery that has occurred since that recession and so, we are looking forward to a good holiday shopping season.  

And then on December 13^th, another Associated Press article written by Martin Crutsinger headlined, U.S. Retailers Sales rose .3 percent in November.  Crutsinger said “figures were much stronger after factoring lower gas prices. When excluding a large drop in gas station sales, retail sales increased a solid 0.8 percent”.  

I picked these four articles to typify what was being written before Christmas.  The media was swamped with rosy news about the season.  After Christmas, yesterday, something snapped and the media was filled with articles of doom and gloom.  You probably read or hear news like this headline from Reuters which proclaimed, “U.S. retailers scramble after lackluster holiday sales.”  

Is this a conspiracy?  It certainly is.  It is an unspoken sinister plot between the news media outlets and retailers who conspire to promote sales by showing a robust and growing economy which makes people feel good and spend money.  

There were many articles written which predicted a poor shopping season but those articles weren’t picked up by the news media.  The articles that were picked up and widely promoted and published, were the articles that were upbeat and positive.  After all, retailers are not going to place ads on networks or in newspapers that predict doom and gloom.  Knowing this the news media selects and publishes news which will enhance the sales of their advertisers.  

After the shopping season the illusion ends, and the media outlets revert back to the stark reality in which we live.  The economy is poor, good jobs are scarce and the future is dark.  Until next year, when the hype begins anew.

T’was the night before Christmas, and what no-one could see,

The men with the dolphins were under the sea.

Most of the crew were flat on their backs,

Snoring and dreaming all snug in their racks.

Those men on watch were making their rounds,

Some manning the planes or listening for sounds.

Back in maneuvering or down in the room,

They all hoped the oncoming watch would come soon.

I’d finished some PM’s whose time was now due,

And hoped for some sleep, even an hour or two.

Against better judgment I took a short stroll,

And found myself wandering into control.

The Nav had the Conn, the COW was in place,

The COB had the Dive and a scowl on his face.

The helm and the planes were relaxed but aware,

The QM and ET were discussing a dare.

To comply with the orders the Nav told the Dive,

To bring the boat up with minimum rise.

The orders were given and soon they were there,

At periscope depth with a scope in the air.

The QM confirmed our position with care,

The broadcast was copied, we brought in some air.

The Nav on the scope let out a small cry,

He shook his head twice and rubbed at his eyes.

He looked once again to find what it was,

That interrupted his sweep and caused him to pause.

Try as he might there was nothing to see,

So down went the scope and us to the deep.

I asked what it was that caused his dismay,

He sheepishly said, “I’m embarrassed to say.”

It could have been Northern Lights or a cloud,

Or a meteorite he wondered aloud.

But to tell you the truth I guess I must say,

Whatever it was it looked like a sleigh.

And though it passed quickly and never was clear,

I almost believe it was pulled by reindeer.

We laughed and teased him and I got up to go,

When our moment was broken by “Conn, Radio.”

They told us a message was just coming in,

We looked at the depth gauge and started to grin.

“Radio, Conn, I feel safe to say,

Your attempt at a joke is too long delayed.

If it had been sooner it might have been neat,

But I doubt we’re receiving at four-hundred feet.”

“Conn, Radio, you can come down and see,

We’re not playing games to any degree.”

I headed aft with nothing better to do,

Surprised by the fact it was still coming through.

It stopped and was sent to control to be read,

The Nav read it slowly and scratched at his head.

Then again he began but this time aloud,

To those that now waited, a curious crowd.

“To you Denizens of the Deep and men of the sea,

Who risk your life daily so others stay free.

I rarely have seen you on this, my big night,

For far too often you are hidden from sight.

But purely by luck I saw you tonight,

As your scope coaxed the plankton to glow in the night.

And lucky for me I’ve finally won,

The chance to say thanks for all you have done.

I know that you miss your families at home,

And sometimes you feel as if you’re alone.

But trust what I say and I’ll do what’s right,

I’ll take something special to your families tonight.

Along with the gifts I’ll take to your kin,

I’ll visit their dreams and leave word within.

They’ll hear of your love, and how you miss them,

I’ll tell them that soon you’ll be home again.

It might not be much I know that is true,

To thank you for all the things that you do.

But I’ll do what I can, while you do what’s right,

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a goodnight.”

                                        - author unknown - 

Pay Now, or Pay Later - It's Not pretty!

Like many of you, I have angst all week over the fiscal cliff.  It is in every news story every hour of every day.  We haven’t fallen off the cliff but the media is already blaming Republicans if we do.  And actually, that’s kind of funny because Republicans, who want desperately to save the Bush tax cuts, automatically lose them if we go over the cliff, while many Democrats, like Senator Patty Murray from Washington, are gleeful over the prospect of the fiscal cliff.

I think everybody who is worried about our future should read the article on the fiscal cliff posted in Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_fiscal_cliff for an honest assessment of the crisis and how we got there.  

Political parties enjoy blaming each other, when in fact they both continue to find ways to kick the can down the road for another six months or another year.  Republicans are determine to keep the Bush tax cuts in place while Democrats are determined not to cut spending.  Strong measures are needed that will require both sides to give ground.  

The world will not end if an agreement is not reached and we go off the cliff - or slope (which better describes the crisis).  The Budget Control Act of 2011 would be implemented, ending Bush tax cuts - for everybody, as well as much of the stuff in the 2010 Tax Relief Act such as payroll reductions and unemployment insurance extensions.  Also included will be across-the-board spending reductions in almost every Federal Agency and cabinet department.  

If we take responsibility for the bad government both parties have wrought and except the consequences, then going over the fiscal cliff (or equivalent harsh measures enacted by Congress) must happen.  It will bring lower deficits and debt but also have lower spending and higher taxes.  Future deficits would be reduced from an estimated 8.5% of GDP in 2011 to 1.2% by 2021.  

If, however, Congress avoids austere measures, then our future will continue on our present course of higher deficits and debt but lower taxes and higher spending.  If we choose this route then we are safe for the short term, but the clouds over our future will continue to darken as public debt rises from 69% GDP in 2011 to 100% by 2021 and approaches 190% by 2035. 

So, which is it America?  Pay now or pay later.  Either way we will pay.  Blame the Republicans or blame the Democrats?  It doesn’t really matter.  We will all still pay.

Birthday Greetings!

Thank you for the birthday wishes.  I appreciate the kind thoughts, the cards, and the Facebook greetings from each one of you.  While looking through my Facebook post, it suddenly occurred to me most of my “friends” on Facebook were younger than me.  It’s true.   I spent a few minutes removing the deceased from my file and discovered that a whopping 94.8% of my friends are younger than me.  (By the way, Facebook really needs to address this problem of friends dying.  Having to “Unfriend” the deceased is a bit distressing.)  Besides, nobody wants to be “unfriended” just because they died! 

Anyway, being somewhat in denial, I rationalized that I had plenty of friends who were older than me - they just don’t do Facebook because, well, you know, they're old.  I turned to my address book for solace.  Carefully counting and categorizing each person as older or younger, I did see a slight improvement - but not enough to matter.  Even excluding all the businesses proved unnecessary because they were all way younger than me.   Sadly, I had to reckon with the truth--I’m older than a can of Spam with a key. 

My grand niece Hannah told me I looked like Walter.  “Walter the mouse?” I asked.  “No,  Jeff Dunham’s puppet Walter,” she said.  And while sitting around the back yard this summer Granddaughter Madie paid me a compliment.  “Grandpa was probably pretty good looking - when he was young.”

I asked Mckenna today what she thought of her grandpa turning 68 she said, “You probably think birthdays are boring.”  Shannon, my youngest granddaughter with a heart to please said, “Grandpa,  I know someone older than you. Momma Ruth!”  (Momma Ruth is a friend of Sunni’s who is almost 96 and lives in an assisted living center.   

It’s been a great day!  Pancakes for breakfast, chocolate malt for lunch and a world of wonderful loving family and friends.  There are some good things that come with age.  

1. Kidnappers are not very interested in you.
2. There is nothing left to learn the hard way.
3. Because there is no one else old enough to remember the past, they have to believe me!

Thank you again for helping to make this a wonderful day!

Corporate Tax - Truth & Lies

I do not agree with this video.  I have posted it to show how deceitful the Left is and how flagrant the attacks against American business in this country have become.  It concerns me that conservatives are silent regarding this issue, leading many to believe that the charges - corporations pay no taxes - are true.  They are not.

Commentators like Thom Hartmann and Politicians like Barrack Obama play people like fools on this issue, persuading them with sarcasm and mis-information that the American business world is evil.

My intent with this blog to inoculate you with a little truth so you won't have to cower in fear, unsure of your conservative position.  You'll recognize a lie when you hear it and will be able to boldly declare the truth to others.  It is for that reason I ask you watch this video and then read the rest of my blog.

Convinced?  Thom Hartmann certainly seemed convinced.  Mitt Romney, the Supreme Court, nasty corporations, almost everybody is against poor little Thommy.  Everyone except, of course, the 200+ air-heads who commented on his video.

Here is a very disturbing fact; all of the corporations he mentioned pay taxes - lots of taxes.   I know, not because I'm smart, but because I took the time to look them up.  Here is what I found.  Over a ten year period these particular corporations paid an average of 46.42% per year!  Really.

Any public corporation is required by law to open their books for all to scrutinize and therefore, anyone (including you) can look for themselves and see who is lying - Thommy or me.  I don't mind sharing my source,  Standard & Poor's stock reports.  I have no idea where Hartmann got his information.  

You can  rely on Standard & Poor's data being correct because their entire business model relies on  accurate information.  This is the same Standard and Poor's that downgraded U.S. bonds from triple A to Double A+ after the President and Congress demonstrated the inability to enact sound fiscal policy last August.  I and many other investors stake our savings on the truthfulness of their data.

Presented below is the actual figures for 2010 (the year Hartmann refers) and a ten year period starting in 2002 and ends in 2011.  Two exception: First, NewsCorp's date for 2012 is already published so their  ten year period is from 2003 to 2012.  And second, Bank of America was the only corporation that paid zero taxes in 2010 as Hartmann claimed however, in 2011, the following year, BAC paid 727% of it's income in taxes.  That would make the ten year average annual taxes for BAC 185.41% and the 10 Yr. Ave. for the group would actually be  67%.  Not wanting to be a technocrat and go through the rigors of explaining everything that happened, I eliminated that year and only used a nine year average for BAC.   But even with that the average these corporations paid in taxes was 46.42%.

	2010	10 Yr. Ave
General Electric GE	7.39	29.22%
Bank of America BAC	0	22.04%
Exon Mobil XOM	40.7	80.18%
Boeing BA	26.5	44.40%
Citigroup C	16.9	47.70%
Wells Fargo WFC	33.4	63.58%
Verizon VZ	19.4	38.10%
NewsCorp (Fox) NWSA	20.4	46.16%
10 Yr. Tax Ave.		46.42%

That's quite a difference isn't it?    Is Thom Hartmann lying or is he just another air-head projecting his beliefs above the truth?  I honestly don't know.  But now, at least you know Corporations do not get a free ride and pay a higher percentage of their gross income in taxes than most people.

Politicians need a paradigm shift

I don't care what tribe you come from.  What all Americans want is to dramatically lower their healthcare cost and have the freedom of choosing their care.  For this to happen politicians need a paradigm shift away from lower health care insurance premiums to simply lower healthcare cost.  There is a big difference there, and I think someone should be speaking out about this aspect of cost control.  

Originally insurers were there to keep cost low.  For the past several decades, insurance providers (government included) have exercised the practice of paying whatever cost providers demanded then passing those cost along to consumers.  The result was skyrocketing premiums at over twice the inflation rate.  

Insurers and providers have tried to justify these cost as necessary to pay for government regulation, new technology and R&R.  But you have to question the validity  of that when considering technology advances in almost every other industry brings cost down.

Focus on the Economy and Jobs

I think Republicans are over confident about winning the White House this fall.  Here is a current  Gallop poll showing President Obama’s lead increasing and Governor Romney’s drop in support.  With the ruling today from the Supreme Court, I believe Romney support will continue to decrease while Obama support increases.  Currently, Gallop sees the race as dead even.  

With all the controversy around Eric Holder, Immigration, Health Care, White House leaks you might think President Obama should be doing worse than he is, but as this week’s poll shows, his support has increased, not decreased.  I suspect next week will reflect the Supreme Court’s ruling and we will see Obama’s numbers increase again.  That’s not good news for Republicans.

Current news, is working in Obama’s favor because it is causing voters to take sides on issues they really don’t feel that strongly about.  For instants many are ambivalent about healthcare.  If you look at the table below you will see that only 6% of voters view this as a "most important problem."  Republicans, had hoped this would be ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court but as we learned today, the ruling was otherwise.  Still Republicans maintain ObamaCare will be thrown out.  They claim they will replace it with new legislation that truly reforms healthcare and lowers cost substantially but currently, they have no plan on the table.  

I believe the Affordable Healthcare Bill is a bad bill and it should be dismantled and replaced with more responsible legislation.  But for whatever reason,  Republicans are mum on what "responsible legislation" means.  With Congress approval rating at 17%, this leaves an awful lot of uncertainty in the minds of voters who are worried how it will effect them and their pocketbook.  

Illegal immigration is another issue that for many voters think is irrelevant.  Because of the poor economy here there are a million fewer illegal aliens in our country than 2007.   It is on the top ten list according to Gallop, but only 3% of Americans think it is significance.  


So when Republicans make a big deal about Attorney General Eric Holder involvement in illegal gun-running or vow to stop President Obama directive to not deport illegal children who came with their illegal parents to this country, you might guess this doesn't build trust among Hispanic voters.  Hispanic registered voters, by the way, are more concerned about the economy and jobs than they are about illegal immigration. 


If the Republicans are to win the presidency and a majority in the Senate they must focus on the economy.  Currently, the polls show Romney is ahead of Obama in the economy, in jobs and leadership.  Persuading independents, women, minorities, union members, and almost any other group you can think of that Romney would be better for the country because he understands the economy and how to create jobs would be an easier task than trying to win by discredit the president.   

Gallop Poll

A Simple Solution for Our Woes

I posted to a blog last week by Michael Brown, a columnist, radio talk-show host and credentials far greater than mine.  

Mostly, his blog was devoted to explaining all the problems in America are not the fault of any one person, certainly not any one president, rather it is the fault of a nation that has lost it’s moral compass.  Brown, discouraged himself, says he will vote for anyone but Obama, but divulged that Mitt Romney isn’t exactly his cup of tea either.  

I’m sure many Americans share his lack of enthusiasm with Romney.  Personally, I look forward to Mitt Romney’s leadership bringing our nation back to greatness.  But that’s fodder for another blog.  

What made Brown’s blog noteworthy was at the end of his essay where he writes, “...the answer to America’s greatest problems is looking in the mirror [to see] if we align ourselves properly with God and with our neighbor.”   He concludes “...if we have messed things up, then by God’s grace, we can turn them around.”  But he fails to mention our role in recovery is repentance.

From a biblical world view, there are three institutions ordained by God - Biblical family, the Church and Government.  These institutions represent the framework in which we are to live and relate with one another.  Studying scripture one could conclude that we are to respect, honor and devote ourselves to these institutions as an act of reverence to our Creator.  Disregard the institutions and we become disconnected and our of sync with our fellow man and with God Himself.

Our disregard for the family is evident in the divorce rate which has steadily climbed since the 1950‘s. Today, at 50% it stands as a glaring reminder of our neglect.  The Church, once the center of our society, is now irrelevant to most Americans.  Nine in ten believe in God but only 18% honor God by attending church regularly.  Our growing disrespect for government is at an all time high.  Our views of President Obama and Governor Romney are more strongly negative than positive.  Congress approval rating is at 20%.  

Could it be that the Bible is right after all?  God lays out a simple solution.  Maybe it’s time we gave it some thought.

“If my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.”  2 Chronicles 7:14

Scandals Serve to Polarize

Since retirement, my morning routine consist of pouring a cup of coffee and turing on the TV to watch the news.  I had hardly awaken this morning when I heard Nancy Pelosi accuse Republicans of attacking Attorney General Eric Holder for preventing voter suppression.  With my mouth hanging open I tried to connect the dots.  How could Eric Holder’s contempt of Congress have anything to do voter suppression?  I was about to declare this Pelosi craziness, when I realized it was actually pretty crafty.    

Following the Bush-Gore debacle in Florida, states have been cleaning up their election systems.  State legislatures have passed laws that have been very effective in eliminating voter fraud.  In my home state of Washington, Attorney General Rob McKenna has done a traffic job of getting rid of corruption and restoring confidence in the system.  

Attorney General Holder, on the other hand, has been fighting to overturn many of these laws for political purposes.  Why?  Very simply, voter fraud benefits Democrats more that Republicans.  Voting in the U.S. is a privilege reserved for the citizens of this country - not Chinese tourist or illegal Mexicans. 

Pelosi doesn’t see it that way.  In a way, she was right when she said Republicans are trying suppressing the votes.  They do.  They suppress illegal votes.  Unfortunately, Pelosi would rather have us believe this is all some dark mysterious plot.  All that stuff about lying before a congressional committee, withholding evidence, and being in contempt of congress - that’s nothing.  According to her, this is really all about punishing poor little Eric for doing his job. 

While none of this helps Obama, I maintain it doesn’t hurt him either.  It only serves two purposes, 1. It eclipses Romney.  Instead of hearing his message on how we are going to turn the economy around, we’re focused instead on the scandal.  2.  It makes a mockery of our government.  We need leadership we can trust, but all we get is mud wrestlers   No wonder America disrespects Congress.  

Scandals serve to polarize, they don’t persuade.  They provide division instead of vision.  A congress caught up in squabbling isn’t going to give us solutions for the problems we care about most.  If this flap continues through the summer, Obama will be re-elected narrowly in November.  

Misinformation Frustrates Americans

Misleading information is the number one reason I get angry over politics.  Ideologies differ, I understand that.  I don’t have problems with a emotional debate on an issue.   I think that is healthy.  It’s when the arguments deteriorate from facts into deceptions that really irritates me. 

Republicans are just as guilty as Democrats spinning the facts to fit their arguments.    

President Obama’s June 8^th press conference on the economy was a good example of using deception instead of facts to support his arguments.  Now before you get your tail in a knot and call me an ideologue, please hear me out.  In less that a minute into his speech he made several startling claims.  

First, “...after loosing jobs 25 months in a row, our businesses have created jobs 27 months  

in a row.”  I suppose he said this is to show that the economy has been positive more months than negative.  That may be his opinion but after looking at the data it isn’t true.  

Incidentally, the  numbers I am using comes from the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.  I use the number to make my point (boring, I know) because it is hard to refute a reputable source.  I also use charts as a visual representation but because they can be deceptive when used without numbers.  Mine will always accompany the numbers.

Anyway, the total time period (25 months of job losses plus 27 months of job growth) equals more time than President has been in office.  The table below shows the unemployment rate for each month going back through 2002.  Since the President didn’t say when the two periods started or ended, I am making a guess as to when his periods started.  I chose January 2008 and highlighted the period in red.  I’m assuming the twenty seven month period of job growth start February 2010.  

  

			Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
2002	9051	8823	8776	8255	7969	8758	8693	8271	7790	7769	8170	8209	8378
2003	9395	9260	9018	8501	8500	9649	9319	8830	8436	8169	8269	7945	8774
2004	9144	8770	8834	7837	7792	8616	8518	7940	7545	7531	7665	7599	8149
2005	8444	8549	7986	7335	7287	7870	7839	7327	7259	6964	7271	6956	7591
2006	7608	7692	7255	6804	6655	7341	7602	7086	6625	6272	6576	6491	7001
2007	7649	7400	6913	6532	6486	7295	7556	7088	6952	6773	6917	7371	7078
2008	8221	7953	8027	7287	8076	8933	9433	9479	9199	9469	10015	10999	8924
2009	13009	13699	13895	13248	13973	15095	15201	14823	14538	14547	14407	14740	14265
2010	16147	15991	15678	14609	14369	14885	15137	14759	14140	13903	14282	13997	14825
2011	14937	14542	14060	13237	13421	14409	14428	14008	13520	13102	12613	12692	13747
2012	13541	13430	12904	11910	12271

This data is in thousands. 

Now before I go any father, you astute reader will notice that this table is unemployment not job loss or creation as the President referred.  Well, it makes sense that if you are talking job loss unemployment increases.  And if you talk job growth unemployment decrease.  Below there is another table on employment but unemployment is the best tracked and therefore the most accurate representation of the work force.  

It may be possible to see using the chart the increase in unemployment (the red months), but it very difficult to determine when the actual decline in unemployment begins - if at all.  To better display the date I created a chart (below) using the numbers from the table to represent my point.  As you can see, there isn’t much change from January 2009 (each bar represent one month) to May 2012.  I couldn’t see anything that would indicate the high unemployment was ending.  

Second, “Job growth in this recovery is stronger than the recovery following the last recession a   

decade ago.” 

Whether the recovery is stronger this time as compared to 2002 - 2004 period is highly subjective so I’ll concede and say the President is untitled to his opinion.  But it is worth noting this because, as I said when I started, statement without fact are deceptions.  And this is a great example of non-factual spin.   

Third,  “...4.3 million new jobs in all have been created.”  The President doesn’t go into much detail here either about those 4.3 million jobs.  Others have suggested these jobs exist only because of accounting gymnastics - such as when contracts are renews, those retained employees are listed as “new” jobs.  But I don’t know that so why speculation.  

The U.S. Department of Labor’s, Bureau of Labor Statistics does track employment so if those jobs exist then they should show up in those figures.   Below is a table I created from data on employment and overall workforce.  The labor market is growing at about a million new people per year.  Which was something I did not know and may be a comfort to all of us if the workforce is growing.  We just need to get them all jobs. 

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Total U.S. Labor Force	142,345	143,927	144,724	142,972	142,342	143,050
Average  Annual Employment	136,086	137,589	136,790	130,807	129,874	131,359
Unemployed	6,260	6,330	7,933	12,165	12,468	11,690
Unemployment Rate	4.60%	4.60%	5.80%	9.30%	9.60%	8.90%

The President said there were 4.3 million new jobs and 800,000 jobs were created this year (2012).  Subtracting 800,000 jobs from 4.3 million jobs lives us with 3.5 million jobs created from 2008 to 2011.  The average employment in 2008 was 136,790,000. Adding 3.5 million to that figure would be 140,290,000 for the average annual employment in 2011.  Unfortunately, that is not the case.  Instead, employment is only 131,359,000 in 2011 which is 5,4 million fewer jobs than there were in 2008.  Frankly, I am at a loss to find where the President came up with 4.3 million jobs.

Lastly (and this will conclude the first 57 seconds of the Presidents speech) “...Europe is our largest economic trading partner.”  Europe is an entire continent.  I know this may seem petty but when someone makes an unfair comparison to substantiate there point it adds to the confusion.  It also renders the person less credible.  In this case, the President was trying to show that the financial crisis in Europe was responsible for our poor economy here.  I don’t believe that but that was what he was trying to say.  

For the record, our largest trading partner is Canada.  Total trade in 2011 was 596.2 billion, followed by China with 503.3 billion, and third is Mexico with 461.3 billion dollars.  If you group Canada and Mexico to form the “North American Continent” it totals 1.057 trillion dollars.  By comparison the EU (which is what President Obama meant when he included the entire continent) is 636.8 billion dollars.  In fact, if you include all 46 countries of Europe it won’t equal what our NAFTA trading partners produce.   (This information was found at the U.S. Census Bureau.)  

Whether it is the EU or the entire continent, Europe isn’t the reason for our lethargic economy. It’s bad policy, plain and simple.