The Sequester Fester

President Obama, in his State of the Union Address, pressured Congress to find a way to avoid the sequester.  In the President's radio address this past weekend, he said the sequester would be "a huge blow to middle-class families and our economy as a whole."  The President’s senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer warned that "devastating" sequester cuts would "imperil our economy, our national security, (and) vital programs that middle class families depend on."    

So, how much will the sequester cut from the budget you ask?  This year, 2013, the Federal Government is expected to spend $3.8 trillion dollars.  The government will collect  $2.9 trillion in taxes.  The difference, $901.4 billion, will be added to our our current 16.3 trillion dollar debt. 

The sequester, as it turns out, cuts a whole $85 billion dollars in 2013 or 2.24% of total spending. The defense budget for 2013 is 900 billion dollars.  The sequester will require a 42.7 billion dollar cut in defense spending or 4.74% from their budget.  Now here is what’s hard to take, the federal government has been growing their budget  4.64% on average each year since 2007.

So, to put this in perspective, if you made 50,000 dollars last year and were told your pay increase this year would only be $1,200 instead of $2,320 how “devastating” would that be?  You might be disappointed but it certainly wouldn't put your household finances in “economic peril!”

2nd Amendment Rights vs. Media Control?

Sometime today President Biden will announce to the President and the public a proposal to curb the shootings in our schools and other public haunts.  Sadly, the major focus will be on weapons and ammunition.  There will be some concern for more security in our schools and better care of the less stable people in our society.
    

What won’t be included in Biden’s proposal is anything that addresses the entertainment industry’s moral wickedness which they subject society to through films, television programing, computer gaming and even advertising.

Televised violence is known to have severe effects on all audience groups, be it children or adults.  Before you agree to limiting your 2^nd amendment rights, consider the following excerpts from some studies on the subject. 

1.  “Prior to this study, it had already been well established that television influences many kinds of attitudes and behaviors by modeling them as appropriate and/or desirable. A highly successful multi-billion dollar advertising industry is built on that premise. More specifically, violence on television has been shown in hundreds of studies to have an influence on aggressive behavior. Over the past 20 years, numerous respected academic and public health organizations and agencies — including the American Psychological Association, the American Medical Association, the U.S. Surgeon General, and the National Institute of Mental Health — have reviewed the existing body of evidence in this area and have unanimously affirmed the validity of that conclusion. Three main effects of viewing televised violence have been noted in the literature: learning aggressive attitudes and behaviors, desensitization to violence, and increased fear of becoming victimized by violence.” ¹

2.  “Media violence poses a threat to public health inasmuch as it leads to an increase in real-world violence and aggression. Research shows that fictional television and film violence contribute to both a short-term and a long-term increase in aggression and violence in young viewers. Television news violence also contributes to increased violence, principally in the form of imitative suicides and acts of aggression. Video games are clearly capable of producing an increase in aggression and violence in the short term, although no long-term longitudinal studies capable of demonstrating long-term effects have been conducted. The relationship between media violence and real-world violence and aggression is moderated by the nature of the media content and characteristics of and social influences on the individual exposed to that content. Still, the average overall size of the effect is large enough to place it in the category of known threats to public health.” ²

3.  ^“According to a report published by the American Academy of Pediatrics in the year 2000, violence (in the form of homicide, suicide, and trauma) is a leading cause of death amongst children, adolescents as well as young adults. It is a more prevalent cause than diseases like cancer or congenital disorders. 

The top consumers or the heavy consumers of violent television programs are males in the age group of 18 to 34, followed by females in the same age group. 

According to research done by Huston in the year 1992, by the time a child is eighteen years old, he/she has already witnessed 200,000 acts of violence including 40,000 murders on television. 

Since the early fifties over one thousand studies have been carried out about the effects of violence on television and in the movies. A majority of these studies conclude that children who are exposed to considerable amounts of television violence are more likely to exhibit aggressive behavior. 

According to research done by Buchanan in the year 2000, children who watch more television or even play more video games are exposed to more media violence and tend to exhibit more aggressive tendencies amongst their peers. 

According to Denis McQuail's theory published in 2002, violence from media, especially television is encoded in the cognitive map of viewers and subsequent viewing of television violence helps to maintain aggressive thoughts, ideas and behavior.

Most of the children in the age group of two to five years watch television for an average of 31 hours each week, which is equivalent to more than four hours of television viewing per day. No wonder, impressionable young minds are falling prey to the element of violence present on the television.” ³

¹National Television Violence Study Vol 3, Executive Summary 

²The Role of Media Violence in Violent Behavior

³Facts about Television Violence

Laurel & Hardy - The Great Compromise! Coming Soon!

Democrat Stanley Laurel (left) and Republican Oliver Hardy

Well, Stanley, just look at the mess you and your Democrat friends have gotten us into this time!  You just tax, tax, tax!  And now, the voters are very upset!  

“Yes Ollie, we certainly are in a pickle, aren’t we.  But you got it all wrong.  We Democrats just gave the voters the biggest tax reduction in history!"  

"Democrat tax reductions!  Why you listen to me, Stanley, those were Bush Tax cuts and that was our idea!   You were against the tax cuts, remember?"

"Yes, we were against it, but now we're for it!"

"So now Stanley, we don't have any more money, so, we have no choice but to cut our spending!"

"Well Ollie, we won't have to do that  because we Democrats voted to make the rich pay for everything!" 

"We can't do that!  Soon they will be as poor as us!  Then what will we do, Stanley?"

“Olliver, I’ve got an idea.”  

“All right Stanley, let’s hear it.”

“If we are out of Money, why don’t we just print some more?  Then you can pay our debt, and I can spend all I want, and the voters won't have to give us a dime!"

“Why Stanley, I think that's a great idea!”

“Thank you Oliver, I’m glad you like it!”

In The Waiting Room of a Car Dealership

In the waiting room of a car dealership the other day, while waiting for service, I became captive to the brand new Katie Couric Show. Katie’s guest was talking about the Fiscal Cliff and gridlock in Congress.  Her comment to her guest was,  “I don’t even know what the Fiscal Cliff is about!”  

The car dealership receptionist, who was also part of the captive audience, responded,  “I’m with Katie, I have no idea what this Fiscal Cliff is either.”  

“Well,”  I said  “I wouldn’t use Katie Couric as your political roll model.”  

“I do!”  she responded a little offended.  Oops.

I felt bad she had chosen to aligned herself with the uninformed.  But, unfortunately,  Katie Couric and the receptionist aren’t alone.  Most Americans have no clue what Congress and the President are fighting about, nor do they wish to complicate their lives by attempting to understand the gravity of the situation that our country is in.    

Unlike abortion or same-sex marriage, which have very little influence on the lives of most Americans, what Congress and the President do about the Fiscal Cliff will impact everyone.  

First of all, the crisis is misnamed.  It isn’t a cliff.  It is a self imposed deadline mandated by Congress to correct government overspending.  The deadline was imposed by Congress much as you or I might decide to go on a diet.  

We know that in order to lose weight we must go on a diet and exercise.  So, we set a date to start a diet.  On that day, we will begin exercising and quit eating so much food.  But as that date nears, we become fearful and regret our commitment.   We may even hedge a bit and decide to not start the diet just yet - until things settle down in our lives.

That is exactly what is going on right now with Congress and the President.  As the day approaches, they fear the consequences.  If they decrease government spending, it will kill many jobs and lower incomes for millions of Americans.  And, if they increase revenue, by raising taxes, it will also kill many jobs and lower incomes for millions of Americans.  Just like a diet, lowering our deficit means tightening our belt.  A good measure of both decreases in spending and increases in taxes are necessary if it's going to work.  And that is what the "Fiscal Cliff" does.     

The worst thing we could do for our Country is not go on the diet, or to do so little that it has no effect.  And you know what?  That seems to be just where Congress is headed.    

   

con·spir·a·cy the·o·ry

A conspiracy theory explains an event as being the result of an alleged plot by a covert group or organization or, more broadly, the idea that important political, social or economic events are the products of secret plots that are largely unknown to the general public.

My son John, who is generally skeptical about such things pointed out that there might just be a media conspiracy surrounding Christmas.  At the beginning of each holiday shopping season, there is nothing but positive news about the economy.  And then, shortly after Christmas, he said, we are told how dismal the shopping season was for retailers.   Never noticed?  Well, yes, come to think of it - that's true!

On October 2, 2012 the Associated Press writer Anne D’innocenzio’s article was picked up.  The headlines read, Retail Sales Prediction: 4.1% higher than 2012.  In the article  D’innocenzion points out, “[This year] is higher than the average growth of 3.5 percent for November and December over the past 10 years.”  Pretty impressive.

A few days later on October 15, 2012 Marketplace published Jeff Horwich’s piece.  He wrote, “consumer sales rose 1.1% last month because Americans are more confident and that due to stock prices and home prices both giving consumers more confidence.  

A month later, November 14th, NBC headlines read, Chamber of Commerce Data Shows Retail Sales on the Rise. The article quotes North Carolina Regional Chamber of Commerce President Timothy Hulbert who says, “We have come back from the so called great recession and the tepid recovery that has occurred since that recession and so, we are looking forward to a good holiday shopping season.  

And then on December 13^th, another Associated Press article written by Martin Crutsinger headlined, U.S. Retailers Sales rose .3 percent in November.  Crutsinger said “figures were much stronger after factoring lower gas prices. When excluding a large drop in gas station sales, retail sales increased a solid 0.8 percent”.  

I picked these four articles to typify what was being written before Christmas.  The media was swamped with rosy news about the season.  After Christmas, yesterday, something snapped and the media was filled with articles of doom and gloom.  You probably read or hear news like this headline from Reuters which proclaimed, “U.S. retailers scramble after lackluster holiday sales.”  

Is this a conspiracy?  It certainly is.  It is an unspoken sinister plot between the news media outlets and retailers who conspire to promote sales by showing a robust and growing economy which makes people feel good and spend money.  

There were many articles written which predicted a poor shopping season but those articles weren’t picked up by the news media.  The articles that were picked up and widely promoted and published, were the articles that were upbeat and positive.  After all, retailers are not going to place ads on networks or in newspapers that predict doom and gloom.  Knowing this the news media selects and publishes news which will enhance the sales of their advertisers.  

After the shopping season the illusion ends, and the media outlets revert back to the stark reality in which we live.  The economy is poor, good jobs are scarce and the future is dark.  Until next year, when the hype begins anew.

T’was the night before Christmas, and what no-one could see,

The men with the dolphins were under the sea.

Most of the crew were flat on their backs,

Snoring and dreaming all snug in their racks.

Those men on watch were making their rounds,

Some manning the planes or listening for sounds.

Back in maneuvering or down in the room,

They all hoped the oncoming watch would come soon.

I’d finished some PM’s whose time was now due,

And hoped for some sleep, even an hour or two.

Against better judgment I took a short stroll,

And found myself wandering into control.

The Nav had the Conn, the COW was in place,

The COB had the Dive and a scowl on his face.

The helm and the planes were relaxed but aware,

The QM and ET were discussing a dare.

To comply with the orders the Nav told the Dive,

To bring the boat up with minimum rise.

The orders were given and soon they were there,

At periscope depth with a scope in the air.

The QM confirmed our position with care,

The broadcast was copied, we brought in some air.

The Nav on the scope let out a small cry,

He shook his head twice and rubbed at his eyes.

He looked once again to find what it was,

That interrupted his sweep and caused him to pause.

Try as he might there was nothing to see,

So down went the scope and us to the deep.

I asked what it was that caused his dismay,

He sheepishly said, “I’m embarrassed to say.”

It could have been Northern Lights or a cloud,

Or a meteorite he wondered aloud.

But to tell you the truth I guess I must say,

Whatever it was it looked like a sleigh.

And though it passed quickly and never was clear,

I almost believe it was pulled by reindeer.

We laughed and teased him and I got up to go,

When our moment was broken by “Conn, Radio.”

They told us a message was just coming in,

We looked at the depth gauge and started to grin.

“Radio, Conn, I feel safe to say,

Your attempt at a joke is too long delayed.

If it had been sooner it might have been neat,

But I doubt we’re receiving at four-hundred feet.”

“Conn, Radio, you can come down and see,

We’re not playing games to any degree.”

I headed aft with nothing better to do,

Surprised by the fact it was still coming through.

It stopped and was sent to control to be read,

The Nav read it slowly and scratched at his head.

Then again he began but this time aloud,

To those that now waited, a curious crowd.

“To you Denizens of the Deep and men of the sea,

Who risk your life daily so others stay free.

I rarely have seen you on this, my big night,

For far too often you are hidden from sight.

But purely by luck I saw you tonight,

As your scope coaxed the plankton to glow in the night.

And lucky for me I’ve finally won,

The chance to say thanks for all you have done.

I know that you miss your families at home,

And sometimes you feel as if you’re alone.

But trust what I say and I’ll do what’s right,

I’ll take something special to your families tonight.

Along with the gifts I’ll take to your kin,

I’ll visit their dreams and leave word within.

They’ll hear of your love, and how you miss them,

I’ll tell them that soon you’ll be home again.

It might not be much I know that is true,

To thank you for all the things that you do.

But I’ll do what I can, while you do what’s right,

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a goodnight.”

                                        - author unknown - 

Pay Now, or Pay Later - It's Not pretty!

Like many of you, I have angst all week over the fiscal cliff.  It is in every news story every hour of every day.  We haven’t fallen off the cliff but the media is already blaming Republicans if we do.  And actually, that’s kind of funny because Republicans, who want desperately to save the Bush tax cuts, automatically lose them if we go over the cliff, while many Democrats, like Senator Patty Murray from Washington, are gleeful over the prospect of the fiscal cliff.

I think everybody who is worried about our future should read the article on the fiscal cliff posted in Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_fiscal_cliff for an honest assessment of the crisis and how we got there.  

Political parties enjoy blaming each other, when in fact they both continue to find ways to kick the can down the road for another six months or another year.  Republicans are determine to keep the Bush tax cuts in place while Democrats are determined not to cut spending.  Strong measures are needed that will require both sides to give ground.  

The world will not end if an agreement is not reached and we go off the cliff - or slope (which better describes the crisis).  The Budget Control Act of 2011 would be implemented, ending Bush tax cuts - for everybody, as well as much of the stuff in the 2010 Tax Relief Act such as payroll reductions and unemployment insurance extensions.  Also included will be across-the-board spending reductions in almost every Federal Agency and cabinet department.  

If we take responsibility for the bad government both parties have wrought and except the consequences, then going over the fiscal cliff (or equivalent harsh measures enacted by Congress) must happen.  It will bring lower deficits and debt but also have lower spending and higher taxes.  Future deficits would be reduced from an estimated 8.5% of GDP in 2011 to 1.2% by 2021.  

If, however, Congress avoids austere measures, then our future will continue on our present course of higher deficits and debt but lower taxes and higher spending.  If we choose this route then we are safe for the short term, but the clouds over our future will continue to darken as public debt rises from 69% GDP in 2011 to 100% by 2021 and approaches 190% by 2035. 

So, which is it America?  Pay now or pay later.  Either way we will pay.  Blame the Republicans or blame the Democrats?  It doesn’t really matter.  We will all still pay.